From domain-specific probability models to evaluation of model-based probability forecasts
Tze Leung Lai, Stanford
Abstract: This talk is based on a related survey/position paper on domain-specific probability definitions and stochastic models, which have been in the probability/statistics literature from 1933 to today (and in other disciplines). It concludes with the martingale approach to the evaluation of model-based probability forecasts and gives some empirical examples.
foundationsofprobabilityseminar.com 